Ram pakhat i a phaisa man (value) hi a ruang tampi ruang ah a tum chel a kai chel a si lengmang. Currency a tumkai hi second le minute kar in ai thleng kho peng caah currency market (phaisa cawk le zuar in) ah sipuasi tuah hi ichuah sual zong a fawi. Kawlram ah kan theih tawn le kan hmuh tawn bang, currency exchange in sipuaizi tuah pawl cu phaisa tomtom an ngei rua kan van ti vial ah pingpalo ah an ichuah sual tawn. Kamkhat in rianrang in phaisa a tomtom hmuh khawh a si ve. Cucaah exchange market asiloah currency market a um kal ning le phaisa thlenret a ttum a kai ning kong hi theih ttha ngai a si.
Cu currency market ah phaisa thlenret a tum ning le a kai ning pawl cu theory le model he thuk deuh in van langhter ding ahcun zapi theih awk a har ngai, a ruang cu hri tthawn in ai ttawng, phun dang kan chim ahcun cawlengkual bang khin ai kual i factor pakhat le pakhat affect an i tuah dih. Cucaah zapi theih fian fawi bik in a cung palang deuh in van zoh hnik sihlaw, lunglut tein rel ahcun phaisa thlenret a tum le a kai ning theihfian khawh nak ah zeimawzet a kan tthathnem lai tiah ruahchan nak ka ngei.
Ram pakhat i an phaisa hi supply (a chuahtu) le a cawtu (demand) tiin a hrampi sectors pathum in tthen a si: (1) Real Economy (zatlang mipi lak ah thilri icawk le izuarh nak ah hman mi phaisa umkal nak), (2) National Bank (ram pakhat i an phaisa a chuah tu le phaisa karh ret a khiak tu) le (3) Financial Investors (phaisa hram phum in invest tuah tu) tiin a tlanpi pathum in tthen a si.
Real Economy:
Real Economy ti mi cu ram pakhat i an phaisa kha mipi zatlang khuasak nak ah a herh mi thilri chuah le zuar, cubantuk caah hmuh mi le hman mi phaisa umkal ning kha a si ko, i hi real economy ahhin export(ram pakhat thil chuah mi kha ramdang ah kuat) le import (ramdang thil chuahmi kha hei cawk) kha a biapi ngai. Ram pakhat i an phaisa a tthawn tuk ahcun export a der lai, tahchunhnak ah US dollar a tthawn tuk ahcun US chuak thil kha ramdang an kuat tik ah ramdang a cawtu nih an ram phaisa voidang nak tam deuh hman a hauh lai caah voidang nak tlawm deuh an cawk khawh lai i US nih export a tuah mi a der lai i an ram phaisa lut a zawr lai.
Kamkhat lei ah US dollar man a tum tuk ve ahcun ramdang ah export an tuah tawn nak ram nih tampi in an thil an cawk khawh ve lai i export a tthawng ve lai nain ramdang thil lut voidang bang an caw kho ve ti lai lo, chim duh mi cu import a der tthan ve lai. Hitin chim usih; export cak seh ti duh ahcun an phaisa thazaang kha a der a hau, import cak seh ti duh ahcun an phaisa thazaang a ttawn deuh a hau ve, i cu karlak ahcun balance thiam ngaingai a hau. Cucaah President Trump nih Wall Street Journal ah a ti mi cu, “US dollar hi a sang tuk lawmmam, a biapi in Chinese yaun he tahchunh ah a sang tuk deuh, cucaah global level in competitive kan si kho lai lo pin ah hitincun Tuluk kan zuam cawh kho hna lai lo, US dollar man hi a niam deuh a hau” tiah a ti. Kamkhat lei in finance minister ding ah candidate a si mi Steven Mnuchin nih, “US dollar a man a tthawn hi caan sau caah a biapi tuk” tiah president Trump ruah ning he ikalh in a chim ve.
US Senate nih an confirm hnu ah finance minister a si te lai i zeitindah Trump he financial regulation an kal pi te lai ti lunglut ngai a si, an hmuh ning ikhah dawh an si lo. An pahnih in an hman veve ko, currency a tthawn tuk zong a ttha lo, a niam tuk zong a ttha lo. Chinese yuan zong khi US dollar thlenret he an rak tthawn ter tuk caah an ram ah ram dang investment tuahtu tampi nih an zaam tak hna i Vietnam le Thailand ah tampi an sehzung an tthial, 2015 lio ah an sipuazi tthan ning a fum tuk caah ti awk an thei lo i cu kham nak ah an tuah mi cu Chinese yuan kha a value an tum ter, cucu zeitindah an tuah tiahcun currency market ah ramdang phaisa kha tampi an cawk i Chinese phaisa yuan tu kha tampi in market ah an zuar, a tang ah tling deuh in kan ttial tthan lai. Cucaah kan umnak ram phaisa thlenret a tthawn tuk ahcun khualei phaisa kuat nak ahcun a ttha sawk, nain ram pumpi huap sipuazi tthan nak ahcun a ttha thlu lo, a niam tuk zong a ttha fawn lo.
National Bank or Central Bank:
Pakhat nak ah ram pakhat i National Bank hi ram pakhat an phaisa man tum ter le kai ter nak le cu zet khat zet in phaisa chuah ding tiah biakhiak tu a si. Tahchunhnak ah Norway kroner kha Euro in van thlen tik ah a tthawng tuk, Norway rampi sipuazi thancho ning he ai balance ti lo ahcun Norway phaisa man kha tum ter deuh an duh lai. Cucu zeitin an tum ter lai tiah cun Norway Central Bank nih ramdang phaisa kha market ah tampi in an cawk lai, cu rualrual in Norway phaisa kha tampi in an chuah ve lai i an zuar ve lai. Norway kroner tampi an chuah i market ah a tam tuk tik ah kroner man kha a tla tthan lai i ramdang phaisa thlen he balance ah a um tthan lai.
Cu ve bang in Norway phaisa man kha ramdang phaisa he thlen tik ah a der tuk i kai ter deuh an duh ahcun Central Bank nih Norway kroner kha tampi in a cawk thluahmah lai i ramdang phaisa tu kha a zuar tthan ve lai, tik ah currency market ah Norway phaisa kha a tlawm cang lai i a man a kai tthan lai, cuticun balance ah a kal tthan lai, cubantuk cu mirang in currency intervention ti a si. Cubantuk central bank nih intervention a tuah tawn hi China, Russia le Japan ah a tam ngai. 2011 lio ah Japan cu US sipuazi harnak le EU sipuazi harnak ruang ah tampi harnak an tong ve, tikah an ram phaisa yen kha le a sang ngai fawn, an ram sipuazi tthan ning he ai rual ti lo tik ah yen kha a man tum ter an duh. Cutikah Japan nih currency market ah ramdang phaisa kha tampi in a cawk i a ram phaisa yen tu kha trillion in a chuah i market ah an zuar, tikah an phaisa yen kha a thla tthan i an sipuazi balance ah a kal tthan, cubantuk cun China nih voithum kheng te 2015 lio ah a rak tuah ve.
Pahnih nak ah Central Bank nih hin interest rate (phaisa cawi a karh ret) hi a tum ter, silole a kar ter khawh. Tahchunhnak ah Norway National Bank nih hin interest rate(phaisa karh) kha cu zet kha zet siseh tiah a khiah, i interest rate kha niam tuk in a tum ter ahcun Norway phaisa ah investment a tuah tu, phundang in Norway phaisa a cawtu le ai hum mi caah a miak ti lo, ziah tiah an phaisa karh a tum cang lai. Cucaah phaisa cawk in phaisa phum pawl nih Norway phaisa kha an zuar lai i currency dang (ramdang phaisa) ah an itthial lai i Norway phaisa ah phaisa phumnak a zor lai. Cutikah Norway phaisa cawk duhnak (demand) a zawr lai i Norway phaisa man a thla ve lai. Ningcang lo in a tlak tuk ahcun a cung kan langhter bang in Central Bank nih currency intervention in control a tuah tthan lai.
Financial Investment:
Finacial investment timi cu stock market ah phaisa phun in share cawk, bonds, mutual funds pawl ah phaisa hram phum khi a si ko. A tawi fiannak cun ka phaisa hi hmailei ah cu tik kha tik ah cu zet kha zet in karh kho ve te seh ti ruahchan nak he banks le stock markets pawl ah phaisa phum khi a si ko. Hi zawn ahhin phaisa thlen le phaisa man a tumkai ter kho ngai mi thil cu phaisa phumtu pawl nih ram pakhat i an sipuazi tthancho ning zoh chom in phaisa hram phum nak a zawr lai silole a kai lai tiah an ruahdamh mi khi a si, cucu speculation (ruahdamh in thil a cang kho ding hei purhdah) ti a si.
Tahchunhnak ah 2015 kum thok ka hrawng in zinaan man cu a tla thluahmah, Norway ram an sipuazi engine pi cu zinaan export a si ve tik ah zinaan man a tlak tluahmah tik ah phaisa phum in invest tuah tu pawl nih ram sipuazi cawlcangh ning kha chiat lei a panh lai tiah an ruahdamh tik ah Oslo stock exchange (Oslo Børs) ah share man a tla thluahmah i phaisa hramphum nak a zawr deuhdeuh, tikah Norway phaisa man cu a thla tluahmah i Sweden phaisa nak niam deuh tiang a tla manh, nain 2016 kum cenceo hrawng in nizaan man kha one barrel = $ 49 hrawng in phunghman deuh in a van kai tthan tik ah phaisa man a hawng kai tthan. Tahchunhnak pakhat van la rih sih: November 2016 US election ah Mr. Trump nih teinak a hmuh e tiah an van thanh a thaizing ah US stock markets ah share man le zinaan man a tla thluahmah i sui man tu a kai thluahmah, a ruang cu financial investors( phaisa hram phuntu) pawl nih Mr. Trump kha an bei sei lo, US sipuazi le vawleizung sipuazi a chia lei a panh lai tiah an ruahdamh caah an phaisa fang kha sui icawk i ifim lei in an ilak caah a si.
Cu zaan lila ah Mr. Trump nih biachim nak a van tuah i campaign a tuah lio i ruru hranghrang deuh i a biachim pawl kha a van mer deuh i nem deuh le biathlum deuh in a van chim tikah shock markets ah share man a kai thluahmah tthan i sui man tu a thla tthan, a ruang cu investors pawl nih US sipuazi kha positive lei ah a kal pi men ko lai tiah an bei sei tthan i tam deuh phaisa phum ding in an van itimh caah a si. Cubantuk tthiam in Mexico zong Mr. Trump nih teinak a van hmuh bak ah an phaisa pesos cu a tla thluahmah, US dollar thlen ret ah 13% a tla manh. Aruang cu Trump nih campaign a tuah lio ah Mexico le US karlak hauhruang sak ding le biatak in security lak ding a au pi, cupin ah Mexico le Canada he chawlehthal hnatlaknak (trade agreement) an tuah mi kha zohfel tthan ding in a aupi caah investors pawl nih Mexico ah phaisa hram phum ding kha a miak lai lo tiah an ruah caah a si. Cubantuk cu phaisa phum pawl nih ruahdamh tuaktan chung nak in an phaisa phum ningcang an thlennawn ning (speculation) nih phaisa thlen a tum ter le a kai ter tiah kan ti mi cu a si.
Ramkhat le ramkhat phaisa man a tum le a kai ning cu hi vial nihhin tampi a fian ter ko lai tiah ka ruah, carel tu nan dihlak cung ah kai lawm.
References:
Blanchard, Olivier. , Amighini, Alessia and Giavazzi, Francesco(2010) : Macroeconomics – A European Perspective. Prentice Hall, Harlow.
http://www.dn.no/nyheter/2016/11/11/1038/Finans/8500-milliarder-opp-i-royk-etter-trump
http://e24.no/makro-og-politikk/usa/trumps-finansminister-oensker-sterk-dollar/23902793